Held accountable… for my tech predictions

When dinosaurs ruled the internet. (Wikimedia Commons image / public domain)

It can very much suck to go out on a limb. Especially if that limb is attached to the fast-growing tree of technology.

Twenty-five years ago, I wrote an essay about the future of the news media and technology. The long version appeared in Analog Science Fiction & Fact (for what was Analog‘s regular non-fiction ‘State of the Art’ feature) as “When Dinosaurs Ruled the Airwaves.” The short version — punchy with predictions — showed up in the Seattle Times on Wednesday, October 7, 1992.

Turns out a lot can change in 25 years.

A smarter person would have cashed the checks and moved on to the next “here’s what the future will be like” project, never glancing back. A smarter person would have made sure his future self never found the original essay online (there was no “on the web” in 1992, at least not the way we think of it). A smarter person is not me.

So, my 2017 future self has critiqued my 1992 futurist self in an essay for GeekWire. It reprints the substance of the entire original Seattle Times essay (except the opening paragraph) and, more importantly, evaluates how I did.

On balance? Not bad. But there were two major misses, having to do with the internet as we know it, and with rumors as we fear them.

Two of these things are not like the others. (GeekWire image / Todd Bishop)

Keep in mind that, in 1992, I was relatively new to tech (2017 marks my 30th anniversary in the tech industry full-time). That was in the era of “personal computers.” But I also had more than a dozen years experience in broadcasting, including work for KING Seattle and NBC Radio. Plus I was actively writing science fiction.

As a result, I thought I had as good a shot as anyone of getting it right. And, I didn’t. Because the wild card in prediction is always a new development that cross-pollinates with another new development to create something unexpected in combination. Like the internet + smartphones, as one example.

Some things still hold up well, such as my introductory Seattle Times paragraph:

It is the end of the Mediazoic Era. The information-spawned creatures feel it in the air as they lumber across the Electromagnetic Plain, feet leaving newsprint images, bodies trailing audio tape. In large part, the demise of the Networkasaurus is due to the very developments that gave it great strength: satellites, computers, and cable television.

And the closing paragraph of the longer Analog version:

There won’t be a lack of information or tight-fisted high priests who control access to it (as was the case in the Dark Ages). Rather, there will be the ability to choose both sources and “editors” of those sources. But this won’t come until we get through the growing proliferation of news sources and gatherers, the resulting confusion, the end of news network and wire service dominance, the development of smart filters, and the accompanying readjustment of social equilibrium.

I’m still waiting for that “accompanying readjustment.”

Do read, “25 years ago, I predicted the future of media and tech — here’s how I did,” at GeekWire.